Predicting Displacement: Using predictive analytics to build a better future for displaced children

A record-breaking 68.5 million individuals worldwide have been displaced from their homes as a result of persecution, conflict, or violence. Over 50% are children. When a displacement crisis occurs, aid agencies are equipped to mobilise massive resources in a very short period of time, but the response is often reactive. With the rise in predictive analytics, a new paradigm in humanitarian and development planning becomes possible. Predictive analytics allows agencies to anticipate the onset of a crisis and understand how that crisis will unfold over time.

With this in mind, the Save the Children International's Migration and Displacement InitiativeĀ (MDI) created a prototype tool that predicts the duration and scale of a forced displacement. The insights from predictive analytics can help governments, donors, and partners make decisions and plan appropriately from day one. Predictive analytics provides critical information about how a crisis will unfold, right from the start, enabling actors to better target and coordinate their response, make a stronger case for funding, and effectively plan and advocate for long-term solutions, where appropriate. It allows aid agencies to use money more effectively, which helps us keep children alive, protected and educated.

This report summarises Save the Childrenā€™s new predictive displacement tool, and its vision in developing the prototype further to establish a robust, multi-sector predictive displacement ecosystem that can develop, incubate, and scale innovations for improving global responses to forced displacement.

Published 2018-11-13

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