No Regrets: Acting in anticipation of flooding in Somaliland

From July 2021 to June 2024 Save the Children implemented a research programme in Somaliland and Kenya to find out how to make anticipatory action more effective at mitigating the impact of shocks to reduce food crises. The programme was implemented through the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action.

This report summarizes the research findings from Somaliland; research was carried out in the second half of 2023 when flooding was predicted. 14 villages were randomly assigned to receive anticipatory assistance ahead of the flooding or assistance after the flooding. Despite these forecasts, flooding did not occur.

The research found that project participants’ confidence in early warning information declined as the season progressed. It also found that households’ anticipatory actions focused on protecting housing rather than livelihoods and that they mostly used the anticipatory cash assistance for consumption and debt repayment. Finally, the research showed that improvements in food security were likely temporary.