This Cost of the Diet (CotD) Analysis: Cost and Affordability of Nutritious Diets in Malawi (August 2025 Update) presents a comprehensive assessment of how the cost and affordability of nutritious diets have evolved in Malawi between April 2021 and June 2025. Drawing on nationally representative monthly price data from 77 markets across 25 districts, the study estimates the least-cost diets that meet energy, nutrient, and culturally appropriate food requirements. It compares these diet costs with household income benchmarks derived from the Household Economy Analysis (HEA) and integrates essential non-food expenditure (NFE) to assess overall household affordability.

The findings reveal a sharp and sustained rise in food prices during the period, driven by repeated currency devaluations, El Niño-induced droughts, cyclones, and global market shocks. Between 2021 and 2025, the cost of a nutritious diet (NUT) for a typical five-member household rose by 350%, while the culturally desirable (FHAB) diet increased by 373%. The affordability gap for poor households widened more than tenfold, and even urban households experienced growing shortfalls by 2025. These trends highlight an unprecedented erosion of purchasing power across all population groups and a deepening nutrition affordability crisis.

Analysis of mother–child pairs (from late pregnancy to 24 months postpartum) underscores the high and disproportionate cost of meeting nutritional needs during the first 1,000 days. For poor households, the cost of an adequate diet for a mother–child pair reached MWK 2.8 million over 30 months, with income covering less than half of essential food and non-food needs. Such findings reinforce the necessity for nutrition-indexed social protection mechanisms that reflect the real cost of nutritious diets.

The report also pilots forecasting models using CotD and HEA data, achieving high predictive accuracy (Mean Actual-to-Predicted Ratio ≈1.0; MAPE ≈8%). Scenario modelling indicates that even comprehensive intervention packages—combining cash transfers, staple crop support, and homestead food production—only partially close affordability gaps, particularly for larger poor households. However, they can make basic nutritious diets affordable for mother–child pairs, highlighting the potential of targeted, costed interventions.

The study concludes that Malawi’s nutrition challenge is not one of food availability but of economic access. Traditional calorie-based poverty measures substantially underestimate the resources required for a nutritious life. To mitigate this, the report calls for programme & policy actions including:

– Indexing social protection transfers (e.g., SCTP, MCCT) to the cost of nutritious diets to maintain real value amid inflation.

– Integrating CotD-based forecasting into national early warning and anticipatory action systems.

– Expanding nutrition-sensitive agriculture and livelihood diversification.

– Implementing macroeconomic stabilization measures to reduce food price volatility.

– Prioritizing women and children through targeted “cash-plus” interventions in the first 1,000 days.

Overall, this 2025 update demonstrates that the cost of a nutritious diet in Malawi has more than quadrupled since 2021, far outpacing income growth. Without urgent and sustained policy action, the affordability crisis risks reversing years of progress in maternal and child nutrition. Scaling up CotD-informed planning and nutrition-indexed protection systems offers a viable pathway to ensure that all Malawians—especially the most vulnerable—can access and afford diverse, nutritious, and culturally acceptable diets.