The Theory of Change to Prevent and Respond to Child Marriage in Humanitarian and Forced Displacement Settings (2025)

Crises are increasing the likelihood of child marriage for girls

Child marriage is a violation of human rights that disproportionately affects adolescent girls. It is both a form of gender-based violence (GBV) specific to children and adolescents, and an entry point for married girls to experience other forms of GBV.

Child marriage is a global issue, practised to varying degrees in every country of the world. It transcends continents, cultures, religions, and ethnicities. Over the past two decades, collective global efforts have helped prevent an estimated 25 million child marriages, marking real progress. Yet this progress remains fragile and uneven. In many contexts, child marriage rates are rising again driven by conflict, climate change, displacement, and economic instability that push girls and their families to adopt extreme coping mechanisms.

Today, an estimated 23.4 million girls under the age of 18 have been forcibly displaced by crises, often leaving their homes and sometimes even their families behind. Many are already in child marriages or unions, while others remain at high risk. For these girls, the dangers are especially stark: displacement can double the likelihood of child marriage as families struggle to survive sudden and prolonged hardship. This heightened vulnerability is part of a much larger global reality, every year, around 12 million girls are married before the age of 18. That means nearly one girl, every three seconds.

What are we doing about it?

Plan International and Save the Children are dedicated to the wellbeing, protection and empowerment of all children – including in crisis settings. We have collaborated to create a new programming resource to support the scale up of actions to tackle child marriage and unions across humanitarian response.

The Theory of Change (TOC) to prevent and respond to child marriage in humanitarian and forced displacement settings is grounded in research with married girls, their families, communities and service providers on child marriage in diverse humanitarian settings, together with our partners. It has also considered the existing global evidence on what works to tackle child marriage, and leverages our collective programmatic expertise, including findings from a pilot project in Jordan. The development of this TOC has been overseen by an interagency technical advisory group of multisectoral experts.

Who is this for?

This TOC has been designed for a diverse audience including professionals working across programme, policy and advocacy, communications, and fundraising. It serves as a guide for CSOs, national actors, INGOs, UN agencies, governments, donors and philanthropic partners to inform project design and set strategic priorities.