Resilience Composite Index (RCI) Baseline Assessment Report (Lebanon, 2025)

Lebanon is entering the sixth year of one of the world’s most severe economic collapses, marked by a 40% contraction in real GDP since 2019, rising poverty, and widespread food insecurity. Despite a projected 4.7% GDP recovery in 2025, this outlook remains fragile and dependent on improved revenues, capital inflows, and early-stage financial reforms—including banking restructuring, enhanced transparency measures, and a depositor compensation plan. Poverty now affects an estimated 60% of the population, with rates exceeding 70% in areas such as Akkar and Baalbek. Acute food insecurity remains critical: between April and June 2025, approximately 1.17 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above, with Syrian refugees disproportionately affected. Families increasingly rely on harmful coping strategies as economic stagnation, conflict, and limited humanitarian funding deepen vulnerability.

Within this context, the SUBUL consortium project aims to improve food security, strengthen livelihoods, and reinforce community resilience among vulnerable Lebanese and refugee households. This report focuses on Outcome Two—livelihoods support—implemented through a Cash Plus Livelihoods Assistance (CPLA) model combining nine months of decreasing cash support with tailored vocational and entrepreneurship pathways. These interventions are grounded in labour market assessments and designed to promote inclusion of women, youth, and persons with disabilities. The project’s impact is measured using the Resilience Composite Index (RCI), with a baseline conducted in April–May 2025 and an endline planned to assess progress toward sustainable income, improved food security, and reduced reliance on negative coping strategies.