Predictive Modelling for Malnutrition: How Cost of Diet and Household Economy Analysis tools were used to inform Nutrition Sensitive Anticipatory Action in Niger and Malawi (2025)

One in four children under five years – 149 million worldwide– are stunted due to chronic malnutrition, affecting their ability to survive, grow and develop. Poor quality diet is one of the main causes of malnutrition, driven by poverty and food insecurity, which are both exacerbated by climate change and rising food prices. As the effects of climate change become more visible, there is increasing demand from governments and partners for more rigorous data to predict and guide investments and anticipatory actions to protect the most vulnerable from food insecurity and malnutrition, especially women and children. This report describes a pilot project that leveraged the Household Economy Analysis and Cost of the Diet tools and climate forecasting data in Niger and Malawi to estimate future gaps in food security and affordability of nutritious diets, and model nutrition sensitive anticipatory actions that could protect both household food security and affordability of nutritious diets to prevent a rise in malnutrition.