DCP Chapter 2: Mortality at Ages 5 to 19: Levels and Trends, 1990 to 2010

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The World Bank Group

This chapter reviews and expands on estimates of mortality rates and numbers of deaths in those ages 5–19 years in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for 1990 and 2010. The age range of 5–19 years encompasses the inflection point of human mortality risks, with infectious disease mortality declining from the high risks of early childhood before noncommunicable disease risks start their exponential increase in adulthood. Although mortality reaches its minimum in ages 5–19 years, the number of deaths in this age group in LMICs still represents a substantial burden, approximately 2.3 million in 2010. A final concern comes from the very little information about the cause-of-death structure for this age range. Conducting larger surveys in high-mortality settings would provide an adequate basis for such an exercise; the cost would be relatively modest since the survey identifies the target deaths at virtually zero marginal cost.

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